How much each 2023 Marvel movie will make: Our predictions

The box office in 2023 will likely benefit from the release of various Marvel movies. Here are projections for how much the MCU and Sony will make from each movie.

Over the past two decades, Marvel movies have become some of the highest-grossing films, and here's how the 2023 Marvel movies will fare at the box office. The popularity of the brand has allowed the various Marvel movie franchises to make billions of dollars every year. While those totals come primarily from the Marvel Cinematic Universe, Sony's standalone Spider-Man universe has also made significant box office hits in recent years. 2018 was a bumper year, with Marvel movies released that year totaling more than $6 billion at the global box office.

2022 superhero box office disappoints slightly, as no superhero movie has grossed more than $1 billion - for the first time since 2017 (excluding 2020's limited COVID box office). With the start of Phase 5, the MCU has several new movies, the highly anticipated sequel to Sony's Oscar-winning animated film "Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse", and the first series of new potential Spider-Man villains. The Granville film lineup is stacking again. There's reason to be optimistic that this will lead to some of these films becoming some of the highest-grossing films of the year. So, let's predict the box office receipts for each of Marvel's 2023 movies office.

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania Box Office Prediction: $1 Billion

Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantumania, the first film in Phase 5, has considerable box office potential. The Ant-Man franchise has never been one of the MCU's highest-grossing franchises. Still, expectations are high for the trio's use of Kang the Conqueror (Jonathan Majors) and his significant role in helping move the multiverse saga forward. It helps that the film has limited competition on the mainstay after its Feb. 17, 2023, release date, since the next superhero flick won't be out for another month. The film is not guaranteed a release in China, which could affect its top performance.

Looking specifically at the box office history of the "Ant-Man" series, there is no doubt that "Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Fever" will become the highest-grossing work of the trilogy. The first film grossed $519 million worldwide in 2015, and the sequel jumped to $622 million when it opened in 2018, a few months after Avengers: Infinity War. This resulted in a 19% increase between installments. The first film in the new MCU phase earned an average of $833 million, but each title varied widely. However, this is still an excellent potential barometer to gauge Movie box office.

The low end of the 2023 Marvel movie box office could be $750 million. This will allow it to have a similar increase between entries as the first and second entry. Every MCU 2022 movie has surpassed that score, too. Had the trilogy followed the MCU box-office model when it concluded a solo trilogy, it would have grossed a lot more. The third film in the MCU's solo trilogy averaged $1.2 billion at the box office, a 163 percent increase from its predecessor. Ant-Man and the Wasp: Quantum Mania could top $1 billion at the box office with the same type of performance and a Chinese version.

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 Box Office Prediction: $1.2 Billion

The Marvel movie with the greatest box office potential in 2023 may be Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3. James Gunn has made this team a steady performer and turned the ragtag into some of the most beloved characters in the MCU. One of the most anticipated movies to hit theaters in 2023, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 has a coveted first-weekend slot in May, and Marvel loves it. Fast X faces tough competition when it launches in two weeks, but there's still room The final entry in the trilogy will dominate the screens and draw large audiences.

So far, the Guardians of the Galaxy franchise has established a solid foundation for Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3's box office prospects. The first movie made $773 million in 2014, and the sequel made $863 million three years later. Using similar numbers to Ant-Man 3, the Guardians films grew 11% between the first and second installments. The predictive model would suggest that if a similar jump occurred, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 would make $964 million worldwide. The only point against this performance might be that the MCU needs to make up for lost money if the movie doesn't open in China.

Predicting the 2023 Marvel film's box office receipts is a bit complicated. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 does face tougher competition, but if it performs as strongly as the other third installments in the MCU trilogy, it will earn more than $1.4 billion. On the face of it, that mark seems a bit rich, even for a movie rated as the most anticipated movie of 2023. Due to its greater competition and possible It didn't make $90 to $100 million in China like the previous Guardians of the Galaxy movie, Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 grossed between $110 million and $1.2 billion.

Spider-Man: Across The Spider-Verse Box Office Prediction: $600 Million

"Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse" promises to be a strong performer now that the sequel has a June 2 release date. Sony released the first film in December 2018, giving the Oscar-winning animated film a run for its money during the Christmas break. Into the Spider-Verse made $384 million in that position, but expectations were much higher for Into the Spider-Verse. The sequel could benefit from the huge hit some animated films have had with kids not going to school for the summer. The bad news is that another superhero movie (The Flash) and Disney's new animated film, Elements, will be out in two weeks.

Assuming Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse is of a similar quality level to the first, and that Spider-Man's various multiverse cameos generate more interest, it's reasonable to expect the 2023 Marvel film to earn at least $500 million Dollar. Historically, June has been a good month for animated feature releases, as 6 titles have grossed over $1 billion in similar release times since then Toy Story 3 did this for the first time in 2010. That's an impressive feat for Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse, but probably not realistic. Conversely, if the franchise follows a similar trajectory as How to Train Your Dragon, it could potentially rake in $600 million.

The Marvels Box Office Prediction: $950 Million

Marvel's box office take in 2023 will be fascinating. The first Captain Marvel exceeded all expectations in 2019, making $1.1B in the months leading up to Avengers: Endgame. Despite mixed reviews and trolls bombarding the film on Rotten Tomatoes, audiences responded positively to the money they paid for the MCU's first female-led superhero movie. While The Marvels does have a chance to be the last blockbuster of the summer, it's released after Barbie, Oppenheimer and Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One, which could affect its opening.

There are several different comparisons and numbers to discuss when determining Marvel's box office. MCU solo franchise sequels have grossed an average of $799 million worldwide, a 35 percent increase from the original. However, the MCU made an exception to this rule in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. movie has That's down nearly 40% from the original Black Panther, as it made $820 million compared to $1.3B. The death of Chadwick Boseman and the loss of a franchise star, combined with the film's release in a post-COVID market, are two possible explanations for Black Panther 2's drop.

This suggests two very different potential outcomes for Marvel when it comes to determining the box office receipts of Marvel movies in 2023. If it follows the growth trend of the MCU's second installment, Marvels will make $1.4B. If it falls like Black Panther 2, the Captain Marvel sequel will only bring in $686 million. Actual box office results for Marvel movies could be somewhere in between. A 40% drop is almost unthinkable with Brie Larson and more coming back, but a 10-20% drop is doable without China and increased competition. That implies final revenues of between $900 million and $1 billion.

Kraven the Hunter Box Office Prediction: $400 Million

Kraven the Hunter is the last Marvel movie in 2023 and could be a big sliding door moment for Sony, depending on how much money it makes. The Spider-Man villain movie starring Aaron Taylor-Johnson is set to hit theaters in October 2023. Although general Audiences aren't familiar with the character, but Kraven the Hunter has faced little competition in major franchises. The question Sony needs to figure out is whether Kraven is a new Venom-level franchise starter or a Morbius equivalent franchise killer.

Sony had a huge success with the first Venom in 2018, earning over $850 million worldwide. That success helped propel Kraven the Hunter, and Venom: Carnage's $506 million take is a promising sign post-COVID. Morbius, however, is one of 2022's biggest box office flops, grossing just under $175 million. The first weekend of the October release window is where Sony has found success with its Venom franchise. But since Kraven hasn't become a pop culture figure like Venom, Kraven the Hunter's box office projections should be around $400 million. That number could rise if either Spider-Man or Venom appears in a 2023 Marvel movie.