Avatar: Way of Water Won't Break the Top 3 US Box Office in 2022

"Avatar: Way of Water" is expected to break box office records, but it won't be among the top three domestic films of 2022.

"Avatar: Way of Water" is expected to break records, but won't break into the top three at the domestic box office in 2022. The film is the long-awaited sequel to 2009's smash hit "Avatar," from director James Cameron and stars including Sam Worthington, Zoe Saldana and Sigourney Weaver. Many of the main actors return. The film was already number one in international markets, however, inclement weather and stiff competition kept it from a meteoric rise in the U.S., despite amassing more than $1 billion worldwide in just two weeks.

According to Deadline, Avatar: Way of Water's total will rise to $433.1 million by the end of the four-day New Year's holiday weekend. However, there is only one day left before the total box office in 2022, and it is still far from the top three domestic films in the year before New Year's Day. It's currently projected to be No. 4 behind Doctor Strange (up from No. 7 currently) in Multiverse of Madness ($411.3 million), Black Panther: Wakanda Forever ($433.1 million) and Top Gun: Maverick ($718.3 million).

How Will Avatar: The Way of Water Rank Domestically When All Is Said & Done?

It has proven difficult to accurately predict the performance of the big-budget Avatar: Way of Water, especially at the domestic box office. After a lukewarm opening weekend in which it grossed $134 million well below expectations, some pundits speculate it won't hit the $2 billion mark, which Cameron says is just its break-even point. However, the film has shown a strong hold on the box office, even posting impressive gains by posting its best Wednesday of the year in its second week and its second Friday of the year third.

However, weekend after weekend, the film grossed less and less overall, a typical trajectory for any new theatrical release. To match the original "Avatar"'s domestic total, the film would still need to bring in an additional $352.1 million. That's totally doable if it continues to keep audience dips low for the next seven weeks. While this may prove difficult, it has little competition in January, and only the movies that come out will shine Blumhouse's M3GAN on January 6, 2023, and the rebooted House Party on January 13, 2023 may be in the spotlight.

However, even if Avatar: Way of Water managed to surpass the original Avatar, it would still only be able to reach #1. . 4 domestic list. While sequels have the ability to outdo the original, if the film proves capable of leaping even higher, it will take Avengers: Endgame ($858.3 million) or Star Wars Episode VII: The Force Awakens ($936.6 million) Pulling off their thrones, that would be an amazing 2nd and 1st place. It did, however, take third place from Spider-Man: No Way Home ($814.1 million), but only time will tell.